“Acayip Büyüyoruz, Bütün Dünya Bize Hayran” Sezonu Açılmak Üzere

Yılsonu yaklaşıyor ve “Acayip büyüyoruz, bütün dünya bize hayran” sezonu açılmak üzere. Bazı tartışmaları takip edebilmek için bazı kavramlara açıklık getirmek gerekir. Çoğunuzun bildiğini biliyorum; ama ben yine de kendi tarzımda büyüme ile ilgili bir şeyler anlatmak istiyorum. Böylece büyüdüğümüz halde neden refahımızın artmadığını anlatmış olacağım. Başlamadan önce şöyle etrafınıza bakın. Bilgisayar, telefon, lamba, masa, kitap görebilirsiniz. Pencereden bakınca arabalar, binalara, iş makinaları gibi çeşit çeşit üretilmiş ürünler de görebilirsiniz. Hata ortalığı temizleyen, araba süren, saç kesen, garsonluk yapanlar gibi hizmet üretenleri de görmek mümkündür. Bu gördükleriniz içerisinde son bir yıl içerisinde üretilenleri gözünüzün önüne getirin. Son bir yıl içerisinde üretilen bütün bu mal ve hizmetlerin toplamına gerçek milli gelir denilir. Bu toplamı düşünürken sonuçta TV ile çay servisini veya araba ile ekmeği fiziksel olarak ya da cismen toplamış gibi olduk. Biraz garip oldu gibi. Bunları toplamak imkânsızdır. Bu mal ve hizmetleri sadece sayabiliriz ancak o da fazla kullanışlı olmaz. Bunun yerine bu mal ve hizmetler için hayali bir fiyat belirleyebiliriz. Sonra o fiyatlar ile üretilen miktarları çarpıp toplayabiliriz. Fiyatların gerçekçi olabilmesi için uygulamada geçmişteki bir yıla ait fiyatlar kullanılır. Bu şekilde elde edilen toplam TL ile ifade edilir ve gerçek milli gelirdir. Söz konusu toplam artarsa gerçekten de üretilen mal ve hizmet artmış demektir çünkü fiyat sabittir. Türkiye’de şu sıralarda 1998 yılındaki fiyatlar gerçek milli gelir hesabı için kullanılıyor. Dolayısıyla gerçek milli gelirdeki artış gerçek büyüme olarak adlandırılır. 2002 – 2012 yılları arasındaki gerçek büyümemiz %62’dir. Yani aşağı yukarı 10 yıl öncesinin sadece yarısı kadar büyümüşüz.

2013 yılında üretilen bütün mal ve hizmetleri 1998 yılındaki fiyatlar ile çarpıp toplayınca gerçek milli geliri buluyoruz ama sonuçta 2013’te o mal ve hizmet için 2013 yılındaki fiyattı ödüyoruz. İşte bu 2013 yılındaki fiyat ile 2013 yılındaki mal ve hizmet üretimini çarpıp toplarsak nominal milli geliri buluruz. Nominal gelir artığı zaman büyüdüğümüzü söyleyemeyiz çünkü artışın nedeni fiyat yükselişi olabilir. Eğer gerçek büyüme yoksa ve nominal gelir artıyorsa fiyatlar artmış demektir. Bu da insanların fakirleştiği anlamına gelir. 2002-2012 dönemindeki nominal artış %303’tür. Yani üç katı! Bu ifadeye yabancı olmadığımızı düşünüyorum . Bu artış gelirin üç kat artığı anlamına gelmez. Ödediğiniz fiyatın artığı anlamına gelir. Artışın yarıya yakın olduğunu (%62) yukarıda gösterdik.

Refah açısından bunun yorumu tam olarak şöyledir: 2002 yılında 100 TL’lik mal ve hizmet için 100 TL ödeniyorken, bu gün aynı mal ve hizmet için 162 TL ödememiz gerekirken 303 TL ödüyoruz. Büyümeye rağmen refahın artmayışının nedeni budur işte. Bu durumda “üç katı” ifadesi iyi bir şey değildir.

Yazar: Profesör Ramazan Sarı, ODTÜ İşletme

Yazıyı Değerlendirin!

The Role of Expectation Management in Economy

Over the years, many new approaches were raised regarding to the policies and roles of the regulatory bodies in the economy. Many former theories could just survive until a new crisis showed up. In these crises times, central banks(CB), which are the practitioners of monetary policy, and as well as governments, pratitioners of fiscal policy, were criticized a lot.

expectationBeginning from the late second half of twentieth century, alternative or/and complementary policies to intervene the economy gained more importance. It was understood that, to guarantee a well-performing economy, not only the intervention to the markets, but also an intervention to the expectations of citizens was necessary. At this point, trasparency and formal/informal communication tools used by CBs are significant to form and/or influence the money market expectations

To begin with, transparency should be given high importance to increases the efficiency and effectiveness of the tools used by CBs. One reason behind such suggestion is that transparency helps to reduce the bias in money market expectations and dampens their variations. If the market does not sense that CB is transparent, their trust will decrease and they will be more cautious and abstaining for the future. As many CBs, CB of Turkey also gives significant importance to trasparency. We can see that, website of CB of Turkey, (http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/) has many sub categories and anyone in the website can find many materials and statistics both in Turkish and English. The organization scheme and regulations are clear and they are available.

Secondly, formal and informal communications may help control financial market expectations by decreasing the variation of expectations. If the market knows what the CB is aiming and doing, the market will be more positive and hopeful about the future. As tools of communication, CB publishes the documents regarding speeches of the head of CB, policy implementations, inflation reports, meeting summaries etc in its website. Especially, after the 2008 crisis, CB of Turkey started to apply communications tools more frequently. Erdem Başçı, head of CB, gives many speeches to tv channels and interviews to newspapers to inform the citizens and financial institutions about the current situation and steps taken by CB knowing that positive expectations creation is needed.

Expectation management by priorly mentioned ways increases the predictability, so CB can implement more efficient policies and keep consistency. In such a predictable environment, it will be easier to observe the impacts of currently applied policies. Consequently, more efficient policy tools can be created as a result of these observations. In crisis time, expectation management stands as a crucial thing. If the greed is more than panic, it will be really baffling for CB to handle the chaos. To lower the greed, communication tools and transparency should be given high importance.

To sum up, expectation management tools should be used more frequently and efficiently by fiscal and monetary policy actors if they desire to keep the economy more predictable and take precautions for a possible future crisis.

Eren Sürücü

The Role of Expectation Management in Economy
1 5

Ne aradılar:

  • the role of management to the economy

Free Trade Zones of Turkey

Before giving detailed information about the free trade zones of Turkey, I believe it will be beneficial to describe what free trade area is, because this term is usually mixed up by the term free trade area. Free trade area can be thought as a trade bloc, in which there are no import quatas, tariffs and similar kind of practices limiting trade in a way. Countries have to sign a free-trade agreement to be a member and benefit from the free area.

On the other hand, free trade zones occur inside of a country aiming to increase trading activities in that zones by giving some incentives and providing tax exemptions. These free zones are beneficial for both developments of the cities where they are set up and accordingly for the whole economy. We can list the objectives of incentives and tax exemptions in these zones as following (Deloitte, 2006)*:

  • Increasing export-oriented investment and production,
  • Accelerating the inflow of foreign capital and technology,
  • Procuring the inputs of the economy in an economic and orderly fashion,
  • Increasing the utilization of external finance and trade possibilities

(* Deloitte, (2006), Free Trade Zones of Turkey, Finding the Right Path to Improve Your Business)

Currently there are more than 21 free trade zones in Turkey, majority of which are located in Marmara Region. There may occur a question at this point: “Why Marmara Region?” In addition to having one of the major ports of export, Marmara region is convenient because of high-quality labor capital, geopolitical position and etc. Moreover, Justice and Development Party, which has been governing Turkish Republic more than 10 years, wants to make Istanbul one of the biggest finance centers of the world. Many of the free trade zones are close to Istanbul, which seems to ease this aim.

The popularity of these zones has started to increase for a few years. Turkey has attaining more and more importance in its region, similarly, in financial terms it is also gaining power. It has become one of the top economies among developing countries, and currently it has the highest growth rate among EU countries. Recent financial crisis in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal affected all of the European Union members and many firms operating in these wounded countries decided to move their production facilities to Turkey because of its convenience. The trend towards moving facilities to Turkey has also fastened after Fitch, one of the credit rating agencies, increased Turkey’s grade to investable level.

turkey-free-zone-map_1

What Makes These Trade Zones Appealing?

The government has many incentives for the companies which wants to set up a facility in these trade zones. The main advantages can be listed as follows:

  • Companies are totally exempt from Income Tax (15-35%) and Corporate Tax (20%)
  • Companies selling at least 85% of their products abroad are totally exempt from income tax payable over salaries of employees
  • Free Trade zones are considere to be outside of customs border; so no Customs Duty and Value Added Tax is applied on the goods entering the zone
  • Due to the Custom Union Agreement between EU and Turkey, goods produced in Turkey are in free circulation in EU
  • Companies can easily and freely transfer their profits and earnings to Turkey or any other country
  • Infrastructure services like electricity, water, gas and telecommunication are provided exempt from Vale Added Tax
  • Companies are free to bring their second hand machinery without any age limitation to the Free Trade Zones
  • The faulty products can easily be returned to their origin by just issuing an invoice
  • Companies can keep their stock duty free for an unlimited period of time
  • Exceptional access to big and growing Turkish Market without limitations
  • No restriction for the price and quality of the goods

Foreign investors can set up either a corporation or a limited liability company in these trade zones. For some kind of services such as banks, holdings, special financial intitutions, insurance companies etc., a permission from Ministry of Industry and Commerce is required.

In the light of this information, one can easily say that Turkey will improve its position in the world trade, and it has many opportunities and advantages for the companies which want to set up a facility in Turkey.

Eren Sürücü

Yazıyı Değerlendirin!

Ne aradılar:

  • free trade zones in turkey

A Success Story: Central Bank of Turkey and 2008 Financial Crisis

Especially after the 2008 financial crisis, many Central Banks (CB) all over the world have changed their policies and managements in order to be able to better handle a new possible crisis. Moreover, this crisis was an opportunity for CBs to apply new  strategies. Thanks to the precautions taken by CB of Turkey, Turkey was one of the few countries which got over the crisis with little damages in comparison with the deeply wounded develop nations. What made the CB of Turkey so succesfull during crisis and afterwards?

To begin with, Central Bank managed the foreing Exchange (FOREX) Market quite well during the crisis. Shortly after the indications of crisis, CB provided liquidity by FOREX purchasing auctions. Due to the unexpected reaction from the market, witnessing unhealthy pricing practices, a reverse step was taken immediately. To be able to control liquidity by other means, CB increased the transaction limits of banks in FOREX deposit market to $10.8 billion. Additionally maturity of the FOREX deposits borrowed within the predetermined limits was risen to 1 month from 1 week afterward it was expanded to 3 months. Simultaneously, borrowing rates were pulled down. Required Reserve (RR) ratios for FOREX was decreased to empose more liquidity to the market and utilization of credits was eased. Observing the effectiveness of policies applied and decreasing effects of the crisis, CB started to take a pace towards exit strategy to rebalance the economy; yet most of the steps taken do still exists.

On the other hand, Turkish Lira (TL) Market was also regulated effectively during the crisis. The first step taken was to decrease the overnight interest rate volatility which can be succeeded by reducing the CB’s borrowing and lending interest rate corridor by 1 point from 3.5 to 2.5. Further more, TL liquidity was injected to the market side effects of which were eliminated by overnight operations practiced at the end of the day. Due to liquidity demand, CB started to 3-month repo auctions which was insufficient so TL RR ratio was decreased from 6% to 5%. Thinking that inflation rate would fall due to the deepining crisis, CB borrowing rate was reduced from 16.75% to 6.50%.

After the crisis started to pass away, as an exit strategy, CB decreased the liquidity injected to market and afterwards an adjustment in the interest rates was applied. RR ratios were adjusted step by step the levels before the crisis.

Eren Sürücü

Yazıyı Değerlendirin!

Ne aradılar:

  • turkish central bank and crisis management in 2008

Trade Balance of Turkey

Anatolia, situated between Europe and Asia as a bridge, has always been a attracting trade area for nations. Throughout the history, many nations tried to conquer this plentiful and strategic area to lead the trade between two continents.

After the collapse of Ottoman Empire, Republic of Turkey was founded by great leader Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1923. Agriculture and trade were the major economical activities. After the second world war, portion of agriculture in economy started to decrease. Manufacturing and service sectors started to grow up. If we disregard the years 1923 and 1930, first seven years of the newly founded country, exports of Turkey were higher than the imports until 1946 creating trade surplus for the Turkish citizens.

Beginning from 1946 to 2012, economy always confronted a trade deficit. Each political party promised to decrease trade deficit; however none of the promises came true. Although manufacturing sector started to grow up after the second half of the 20th century, it was based on basic production. Additionally production was dependent on intermediary products imported from other countries.

To create a trade surplus, exports should exceed the amount of imports. Because of the dependent production, everytime exports are increased in Turkey, imports are increased as well which prevents a trade surplus.

Secondly, thanks to the free trade, importing some products is now cheaper than producing at home because of comparative advantage, existing resources, technology and so on. This also leads less production in Turkey and increases the imports.

Exchange rates is also an affecting factor. Throughout the Turkish history, Turkish curreny (lira) was devalued many times. From 1946 to 1960, one US dollar was equal to 2.8 Turkish lira. In 1966, 1980, 1988, 1995, 2001, Turkish lira was devalued against dollar. Normally, this should be considered a positive effect on export. Because, for foreigners it will be cheaper for foreigners to import products from Turkey. However, in these years, trade deficit continued.

Other than these factors, fluctuations in input prices also affects trade balance. Turkey must definitely import oil owing to the lack of petroleum areas. Oil has a big pie on imports.

To decrease the trade deficit, fluctuations at exchange rates should be prevented at the same time production of intermediary products should be promoted. Import quote and tariffs can be helpful if amounts can be set correctly. Citizens should also be promoted to buy home made products.

Eren Sürücü

Yazıyı Değerlendirin!

Ne aradılar:

  • trade balance Turkey
  • trade balace of turkey

Economies of Brand

When we say economy, what comes to one’s mind first is the social system related to the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services in a society. Survival of this system depends on two terms which are demand and supply. Depending on the availability of resources, many firms produce goods and services, and depending on their purchasing power, consumers buy these services and goods.
best-brands
*
Economists always say that if the companies want to be competitive and profitable in global market and to survive for a longer time, they should achieve economies of scale and economies of scope. Economies of scale means lowered costs and efficient production due to production at a large scale, on the orher hand, economies of scope occurs when a company can produce at a lower cost as a result of sharing resources for the production of  many goods. However, there is a missing concept at this scene and according to me it is “Economies of Brand”.
*
Economies of brand occurs when a company can charge a premium price for its products and services due to its brand reputation. A well-designed and perfectly-named brand, with the help of the distinctive product features and performances, can play a significant role for the sustainability and profitability of the company. Companies should also invest in their brands as much as other facilities. Succesful brands occurs when they are supported by some distinctive features like high-quality, durable, convenient etc.
*
According to Brandz’s 100 Top Most Valuable Global Brands 2012 list, Apple, founded in 1976, is the most valuable brand, with 182,951 million dollars brand value, IBM, founded in 1911, occupies the second place with a brand value of 115,985 million dollars and then Google, founded in 1998, follows with a brand value of 107,857 million dollars (Brandz, 2012).
*
When we look at these facts, we can observe that brand value does not depend on the age of the firm. One common feature of these three firms that they operate in technology industry. The importance of brand image in technology industry is so high that these companies not only invest in their brands but also their products. They survive due to their high-quality products and services. All of these firms are the leaders of their sectors.
*
Apple is the most valuable brand, thanks to this, it can charge higher prices for its products and services.  The first thing that comes into mind when you hear Apple is “prestige”. It is a wonderful sample for product and image engagement. Even if there are many competitors in its sector, it has the highest customer loyality. Knowing this fact, Apple can charge a premium for its products. When it announces a new product launch, many of the customers go and wait for hours to be the first users of that.brands
*
To conclude, we can say that economies of brand should be considered as a source of competitiveness and companies should give high importance to their brands. It should not be forget that in the first years of the production, products serves for the interest and profitability of the company, however; in the following years brand starts to overweigh.
*
Eren Sürücü
Yazıyı Değerlendirin!